As the U.S. presidential election unfolds, analysts believe that regardless of the winning candidate, there will not be significant changes to Vietnam's economy. However, the stock market may experience considerable volatility if Donald Trump returns to the White House.

According to Michael Kokalari, Chief Economist at VinaCapital: "The election results may not significantly impact Vietnam, regardless of who wins".

During her campaign, Kamala Harris emphasized boosting the economy through incremental reforms, such as increasing tax credits for families with young children, raising the minimum wage, building affordable housing, and supporting small businesses.

Meanwhile, Trump’s policies leaned more toward protectionism, with measures like deporting undocumented immigrants and imposing high tariffs, particularly on goods from China.

Both candidates have their own strengths and weaknesses in their policy approaches, which undoubtedly impact voter choices.

In 2022, President Biden’s CHIPS Act (the Creating Helpful Incentives to Produce Semiconductors Act) spurred a strong wave of investment in U.S. tech manufacturing, leading to a fourfold increase in funding for new factories. However, it also caused higher production costs due to a shortage of skilled labor.

Mr. Kokalari believes that relocating production to the U.S. does not necessarily mean that exports from Vietnam will be negatively affected. While Trump may increase tariffs on imports, he could also choose to devalue the U.S. dollar to promote exports, which would benefit Vietnam.

Specifically, according to the government’s data, the former U.S. president proposed imposing tariffs of 10-20% on imports from other countries, with China facing a 60% tariff. This is much higher than the average 2% tariff currently applied to non-agricultural goods exported to the U.S.

In the context of the U.S.-China trade war, if Trump imposes a 60% tariff on imports from China, Chinese goods will become more expensive in the U.S. market. Vietnam will become an attractive destination for companies wanting to shift their supply chains away from China.

According to a report from VinaCapital, whether or not tariffs are imposed, Vietnam’s exports can still remain stable. With a devalued U.S. dollar, other countries tend to buy more of Vietnam’s exports, and Vietnamese products will become cheaper compared to American products in international markets.

Therefore, Vietnam may benefit from increased exports to the U.S. consumer demand in the U.S. continues to grow steadily, which has helped boost Vietnam’s exports to the U.S. this year.

In the third quarter, Vietnam’s exports to this market reached nearly 33 billion USD, the highest ever. In the first 9 months of 2024, the total reached nearly 88.2 billion USD, an increase of about 26% compared to the same period last year. This upward trend is forecasted by analysts to continue after the U.S. presidential election and into next year.

However, there are some risks, such as the possibility of Vietnam becoming a target for tariffs due to trade imbalances.

In addition, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warns that if import tariffs rise significantly, global economic growth could slow sharply, affecting many countries, including Vietnam.

Regarding the financial market, if Harris wins, volatility may be milder compared to a Trump victory.

Another concern analysts have if Trump returns to the White House is the potential influence on the independent operations of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed).

Maurice Obstfeld, an expert from the IMF, argues that if Trump returns to the White House, he may intervene in the independent activities of the Fed. If the Fed becomes politically influenced, decisions about interest rates or monetary policy may no longer be based on long-term economic interests but instead serve political objectives. This could make the global financial market more unpredictable.