Business News 30/03/2024, 17:07

Standard Chartered forecasts Vietnam’s Q1 GDP to reach 6.1%

Standard Chartered Bank forecasts Q1 GDP to maintain a moderate level, reaching 6.1%, amid the risk of increasing inflation.

Standard Chartered forecasts Vietnam’s Q1 GDP to reach 6.1%

In the Vietnam economic update report released on March 25, Standard Chartered Bank recognizes the situation at the beginning of the year is more positive than the same quarter in 2023 (increased by 3.32%).

The bank also maintains its forecast for Vietnam's GDP this year at 6.7%. In Q1, economic growth is forecast to reach 6.1%. This level is 0.6% higher than the forecast given by UOB Bank (Singapore) in the middle of this month (5.5%).

According to Standard Chartered, Vietnam's GDP will reach about 6.2% in the first 6 months of the year, then increase to 6.9% in the second half of this year.

March data is showing signs of recovery after the Lunar New Year. This comes from a 9.2% increase in retail sales compared to the same period last year. Exports are forecast to recover at 5.2% over the same period, while imports are about 5%. The trade surplus could decrease to 0.8 billion USD.

However, inflation shows signs of increasing, possibly reaching 4.2% in March compared to the same period, increasing by 0.2% compared to the previous month. The prices of educational services, housing (construction materials), and food are factors driving inflation recently.

This organization also believes that in order for FDI to recover strongly, Vietnam needs to achieve faster GDP growth.

Mr. Tim Leelahaphan, Economist for Thailand and Vietnam, Standard Chartered, said that the growth of Q1 may slow down, but Vietnam still maintains its recovery momentum. However, he said, the bank is cautious in forecasting the first half of the year due to global challenges.

Standard Chartered also forecasts that the State Bank will keep the refinancing interest rate at 4.5% until the end of Q3/2024 and increase it by 50 basis points in Q4, amid concerns about inflation due to growth.

VnExpress / Translator: Hoàng Trúc
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